🔌 Can Geopolitical Crises Derail Green Transitions? Germany and Italy Show Diverging Paths

“The Russia–Ukraine War didn’t just destabilize energy markets. It reshaped the climate trajectories of Europe’s largest economies.”
— Yeong Jae Kim

When energy security collides with climate goals

In the wake of the Russia–Ukraine War, Germany and Italy, two of Europe’s biggest economies, took drastically different paths in their energy transitions. A new study reveals how the crisis has pushed Germany toward coal, while Italy has diversified its gas imports and maintained its decarbonization goals.

Germany: Coal use surged

Facing cutoffs in Russian gas and a nuclear phase-out, Germany ramped up coal-fired power. This raised projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 60% compared to a scenario without the war. While Germany continues to target 80% renewable energy by 2030, this backslide highlights how energy security can conflict with decarbonization goals. This highlights the need for faster renewable deployment and electricity grid reform.

Italy: Resilience through diversification

Italy cut Russian gas reliance from 40% to 25%, increased hydropower after a historic drought, and maintained renewable investments through its €59B National Recovery Plan. GHG Emissions remained stable, suggesting a more resilient transition.

🔬 How they tested it

Using detailed electricity data and time-series models, researchers forecasted 2023–2027 energy mixes and emissions under “with war” and “without war” scenarios.

📌 Policy takeaway

Germany needs faster renewable deployment and grid reform to avoid coal dependency. Italy must resolve permitting bottlenecks and bolster storage infrastructure to sustain progress.

📄 About the Study
Title: Energy transitions post–Russia–Ukraine war: challenges and policy implications in Germany and Italy
Authors: Yeong Jae Kim, Kyonggi Min, Seong-Hoon Cho
Journal: The Electricity Journal (2025) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2025.107518
Data: Monthly generation stats (2015–2023) via ENTSO-E
Design: SARIMA model projections of emissions and electricity mix under conflict and no-conflict scenarios