Our study examines how the Russia-Ukraine War disrupted the European Union’s progress toward carbon neutrality by 2050, focusing on Germany and Italy. Using SARIMA time series models, we project electricity supply and GHG emissions for 2023–2027 under two scenarios: with and without the war. The war caused a temporary setback in Germany’s decarbonization, but had limited impact on Italy’s transition. Achieving EU-wide net-zero goals will require faster renewable expansion and stronger energy-security integration across member states.